With the remaining two Tests of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and Australia’s upcoming tour of Sri Lanka, the contenders for the World Test Championship (WTC) final at Lord’s in June 2025 are India, Australia, and Sri Lanka. Here’s a breakdown of their qualification paths:
India
Current Percentage: 55.89 | Matches Remaining: 2 (vs. Australia, away)
Win Both Tests:
India would secure 60.53% and qualify directly, finishing ahead of Australia (57.02%), even if Australia sweep their Sri Lanka series 2-0. Sri Lanka’s maximum points (53.85%) would not be enough.
Win One, Draw One:
India would finish on 57.02%. In this case, Australia could edge ahead with 58.77% if they win both Tests in Sri Lanka. For India to qualify, Australia must secure no more than 16 points in Sri Lanka (e.g., one win and one draw).
Win One, Lose One:
India would drop to 55.26%, relying on Sri Lanka defeating Australia at least 1-0 to remain in contention.
Draw Both:
India would end at 53.51%, leaving Sri Lanka (if they win 2-0) and Australia (with at least one win in Sri Lanka) ahead.
Draw One, Lose One:
India’s percentage would fall to 51.75%, eliminating them from contention
Australia
Current Percentage: 58.89 | Matches Remaining: 2 (vs. India, home), 2 (vs. Sri Lanka, away)
Win Both Tests Against India:
Australia would secure qualification with 57.02%, regardless of the Sri Lanka series result.
Win One, Draw One (vs. India):
Australia would remain ahead of India even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka could surpass them with a 2-0 sweep.
Win One, Lose One (vs. India):
Australia would need at least one win in Sri Lanka to stay in contention.
Draw Both Tests (vs. India):
Australia would similarly require at least one win in Sri Lanka.
Lose Both Tests (vs. India):
Australia would be eliminated from the race.
Sri Lanka
Current Percentage: 45.45 | Matches Remaining: 2 (vs. Australia, home)
Maximum Percentage: 53.85 (with a 2-0 series win over Australia).
For Sri Lanka to qualify:
Both remaining Tests between India and Australia must end in draws, or
Australia must win one Test against India while the other is drawn.
In any other scenario, either India or Australia would finish with a higher percentage, ruling Sri Lanka out.
India and Australia have direct paths but must deliver strong performances in their remaining matches.
Sri Lanka’s hopes hinge on a clean sweep against Australia and favorable results in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
The race remains intense, with every session of the upcoming matches proving crucial.
